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《通货膨胀如何欺诈股票投资者》续二  

2011-06-02 06:57:09|  分类: 双语新闻 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Stocks are perpetual

It is also true that in the real world investors in stocks don't usually get to buy at book value. Sometimes they have been able to buy in below book; usually, however, they've had to pay more than book, and when that happens there is further pressure on that 12 percent. I'll talk more about these relationships later. Meanwhile, let's focus on the main point: as inflation has increased, the return on equity capital has not. Essentially, those who buy equities receive securities with an underlying fixed return - just like those who buy bonds.

Of course, there are some important differences between the bond and stock forms. For openers, bonds eventually come due. It may require a long wait, but eventually the bond investor gets to renegotiate the terms of his contract. If current and prospective rates of inflation make his old coupon look inadequate, he can refuse to play further unless coupons currently being offered rekindle his interest. Something of this sort has been going on in recent years.

Stocks, on the other hand, are perpetual. They have a maturity date of infinity. Investors in stocks are stuck with whatever return corporate America happens to earn. If corporate America is destined to earn 12 percent, then that is the level investors must learn to live with. As a group, stock investors can neither opt out nor renegotiate. In the aggregate, their commitment is actually increasing. Individual companies can be sold or liquidated and corporations can repurchase their own shares; on balance, however, new equity flotations and retained earnings guarantee that the equity capital locked up in the corporate system will increase.

So, score one for the bond form. Bond coupons eventually will be renegotiated; equity "coupons" won't. It is true, of course, that for a long time a 12 percent coupon did not appear in need of a whole lot of correction.

The bondholder gets it in cash

There is another major difference between the garden variety of bond and our new exotic 12 percent "equity bond" that comes to the Wall Street costume ball dressed in a stock certificate.

In the usual case, a bond investor receives his entire coupon in cash and is left to reinvest it as best he can. Our stock investor's equity coupon, in contrast, is partially retained by the company and is reinvested at whatever rates the company happens to be earning. In other words, going back to our corporate universe, part of the 12 percent earned annually is paid out in dividends and the balance is put right back into the universe to earn 12 percent also.

 

股票是永久的

真实情况是,在现实世界,股票投资者通常并不用净资产价格购买股票。有时他们能在净资产价格之下购买。但是大多数的情况下他们的购买价格要比净资产价格高。当这种情况发生时,就进一步加大了了12%的资本回报的压力。在后面的文章里我会进一步谈二者的关系。现在,让我们关注主要的一点:通货膨胀已经增加,但资本回报却不变。本质上,买股票的人得到的是内在的固定收益 – 这和买债券的人一样。

当然,股票和债券有一些重要的形式上的不同。首先,对购买者来说债券最终会到期。债券可能需要等很长时间才到期,但是最终债券投资者能够重新谈判合同的条款。如果目前和未来预期的通货膨胀率上涨使债券投资人旧的息票率显得不够多,他可以拒绝再买进。除非目前的息票率提高,能够重新引起他的兴趣。这种情况在近些年一直在持续上演。

股票,与之相反,是永久的。股票具有无限的到期日。股票投资者只能受制于美国企业的盈利,无论好坏。如果美国企业注定获得12%的资本回报,这就是股票投资人必须接受的回报水平。作为一个群体,股票投资者无法退出,也无法重新谈判。从总体上说,他们的投入是增加的。单个的公司可以被买卖或破产清算。公司也可以回购股票。但是从总体来说,增发新股和未分配利润肯定会使锁定在公司系统里的资本增加。

所以,债券在这点上占了上风。债券最终会被重新谈判,股票的“息票”不会。确实,在很长时间里,12%的息票率看起来并不需要很多调整。

债券投资者拿的是现金

这是另外一个债券与12%回报的“股权债券”的重要的区别。股票就好像是穿着股票证书华丽外衣参加华尔街化妆舞会的一种新的债券 - “股权债券”。

通常情况下,债券投资者拿到现金息票。他可以自己决定这笔现金最好的投资方式。而我们的股票投资者的“息票” - 盈利,则与之相反,一部分被公司留用并重新投资,而且投资回报率完全取决于公司。换句话说,公司的12%的年资本回报率一部分以现金方式发股息,剩下的重新再投入去盈取12%的回报。

 

 

 

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