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巴菲特《通货膨胀如何欺诈股票投资者》  

2011-05-23 23:05:55|  分类: 双语新闻 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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        1977年5月,巴菲特在《财富》杂志发表了一篇超长的文章 ,精辟论述了通胀如何打击股市和债市,它的标题是《 How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor  》《通货膨胀如何欺诈股票投资者》。这篇文章目前还没找到中文翻译,请人翻译一下,共勉。

      《How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor》

The central problem in the stock market is that the return on capital hasn’t risen with inflation. It seems to be stuck at 12 percent.

by Warren E. Buffett, FORTUNE May 1977

It is no longer a secret that stocks, like bonds, do poorly in an inflationary environment. We have been in such an environment for most of the past decade, and it has indeed been a time of troubles for stocks. But the reasons for the stock market's problems in this period are still imperfectly understood.

There is no mystery at all about the problems of bondholders in an era of inflation. When the value of the dollar deteriorates month after month, a security with income and principal payments denominated in those dollars isn't going to be a big winner. You hardly need a Ph.D. in economics to figure that one out.

It was long assumed that stocks were something else. For many years, the conventional wisdom insisted that stocks were a hedge against inflation. The proposition was rooted in the fact that stocks are not claims against dollars, as bonds are, but represent ownership of companies with productive facilities. These, investors believed, would retain their Value in real terms, let the politicians print money as they might.

And why didn't it turn but that way? The main reason, I believe, is that stocks, in economic substance, are really very similar to bonds.

I know that this belief will seem eccentric to many investors. They will immediately observe that the return on a bond (the coupon) is fixed, while the return on an equity investment (the company's earnings) can vary substantially from one year to another. True enough. But anyone who examines the aggregate returns that have been earned by companies during the postwar years will discover something extraordinary: the returns on equity have in fact not varied much at all.

 

《通货膨胀如何欺诈股票投资者》

股市的核心问题在于:市场的资本回报率没有随着通货膨胀而上升,而似乎是停滞在了12%

作者:沃伦.巴菲特,《财富》杂志1977年5月号

股票在通货膨胀环境下像债券一样表现不佳,这早就不再是个秘密。而且在过去10年的大多数时间里,我们一直处于这种通胀环境里。确实,这是一个股票市场遇到麻烦的时期。但是在过去这段时间里,这些造成股票市场难题的原因,人们依然难以完全理解。

在通胀时期债券持有者所遇到的问题一点也不神秘。当美元价格月复一月地贬值,任何一种本金和收入都用美元支付的证券都不会获得巨大收益。你不需要经济学博士学历就能搞懂这个问题。

长期以来,股票被人们设想成是与众不同的。多年来的传统智慧坚持认为股票是一种对通货膨胀的对冲。这种想法来源于这样一个事实,那就是股票不像债券一样是对美元的所有权,而是代表对拥有生产设施的公司的所有权。因此,股票投资者们相信,无论政客们如何印钞票(导致通货膨胀),股票投资者仍然能保持他们投资的实际价值。

但是为什么实际上不是这么回事呢?我认为主要原因其实在于股票在经济实质上非常类似于债券。

我知道这种想法对很多投资者来说显得很古怪。他们立刻就会说债券的回报(利息)是固定的,而股票投资的回报(公司盈利)会每年变化极大。理论上确实如此。但是,任何研究战后公司总体回报的人都会发现一个不寻常的现象:股票的回报率实际上并没有变化那么多 。

待续

 

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